The most instinctive politicians never let you see them sweat and never let you know they have it wired. Gov. Ted Kulongoski, then, is not a natural, as he's proving once again with the messy debate over retailer commissions for the miniature Oregon casinos masquerading as saloons and bowling alleys.

As Neil Goldschmidt was a master of the devious backroom deal, Kulongoski's clumsy transparency may be a distancing device. His strategy and tactics have certainly put some distance between Oregon schools and millions in much-needed revenue.

Everyone knows the retailers got away with murder last year when the Oregon Lottery Commission awarded them 29 percent of the video poker profits generated by the machines that keep these taverns and "delis" open. They clearly got away with $85 million that would have been better spent on public safety or public schools if the retailer commission rate had been set at the altogether reasonable 15 percent.

The introduction of line games, long sought by retailers, gave Ted and the Lottery Commission a glorious opportunity to make things right. To guarantee a more equitable result, Kulongoski had several ways to wire the deal.

He could easily have filled the empty seat on the five-member commission with an accountant, as required by the Oregon Constitution, to replace Richard Solomon. It's a lot easier to get three sympathetic votes when you have five commissioners voting instead of four.

The governor also could have booted Stan Robson -- a huge fan of tavern welfare -- from the commission or found a less conflicted new commissioner than Lisa Noah. When you're the economic development director for the Newport Chamber of Commerce, as Noah is, your maternal instinct is to protect the economic interests of the leaky taverns in your domain.

Kulongoski, however, did none of the above. He brought Noah on board, allowed Robson to hang around and left Solomon's seat empty. Then, curiously, the governor stomped his foot when Oregon Lottery Director Dale Penn backtracked and suggested a new blended rate just under 25 percent because Penn can't find three votes for the 21 percent or 22 percent rate favored by school advocates and commission chairman Kerry Tymchuk.

That stomp was either pure theater or a sign of Kulongoski's frustration that he doesn't have the instincts or the inclination to produce a slam dunk for the public interest behind the scenes.

Holly Armstrong, the governor's new spokesperson, questions whether it's good policy to "stack the deck" of a commission to achieve a specific result. In this case, I suspect most Oregonians would respond, "You're doggone right."

In the absence of good results, the governor is annoying his base and his party. Sen. Frank Shields, D-Portland, plans to move a bill out of his General Government committee next week that will cap retailer commissions at 15 percent. Shields argues that the Legislature and the Lottery Commission have become "flunkies" for the state's roadside casinos and their union representatives, the Oregon Restaurant Association.

Tymchuk, forever calm, cool and collected, responds, "To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, we have the lottery we have, not the lottery we want. Do I think they set the rates too high? You bet. If they want to punish the retailers, 15 percent is a fine number. Will it get more money for schools? No.

"My biggest disappointment is there are so many people who want to make this a political issue or an emotional issue. To me, it's a mathematical issue. There's a number -- and granted, it's an inexact science -- that meets the statutory charge, a maximum rate of return for the state while providing retailers a reasonable rate of return.

"To go from 32 percent to 24 percent in a year is, I think, a substantial victory," Tymchuk concludes.

A sweeter victory would be a one- or two-year deal with retailers to see how this shakes out. If Tymchuk can pull that off, he'll be acting like the governor we want, not the governor we have.

Steve Duin: 503-221-8597; Steveduin@aol.com; 1320 S.W. Broadway, Portland, OR 97201

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